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As the result of two more Fed hikes at the short end and somewhat lower rates further out the maturity spectrum, we expect the US yield curve to go completely flat or invert slightly. This process will bring more calls of recession for Equities — We expect returns across equities to be mixed. However, with the Fed turning more dovish, inflation in check we believe , and only modestly elevated valuations, we see little reason for price multiples to contract meaningfully.

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The math for European equities is similar, but we maintain our preference for European stocks, as their lower valuations imply less downside if the global economy falters more than we expect. For investors with a strong stomach, we favor emerging market stocks as the headwinds from Fed tightening and US dollar strength are likely to wane. In addition, the carnage in EM stocks already reflects our macro concerns for next year. Overall, we believe equity volatility levels will be similar to what we experienced in Markets are likely to remain on edge as investors over react to a slower-growth, less certain macro environment.

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Credit — We do not subscribe to the idea that a credit bubble is likely to burst anytime soon. Moreover, we are only expecting a slowdown in growth, not a downturn that would impair credit fundamentals and precipitate a deeper credit crisis. However, we expect corporate issues to struggle some spread widening on perceptions of deteriorating credit quality.

Within investment grade corporate bonds, we believe yields will rise only modestly. Widening spreads may offset falling base treasury rates. This should result in lackluster positive returns after adjusting for the duration impact on prices. As investors become more worried about the trajectory of growth, high yield spreads may come under more pressure.

While their return forecasts may be similar, the downside risk is greater for high yield issues. For attractive yields, our preference in credit remains with senior bank loans. With short rates likely to rise only modestly, we put little weight on the floating nature of their coupons. Instead investors should focus on their defensive features: Risks — The two greatest threats to our current outlook are recession and inflation.

In simple terms, we are expecting risk assets to weather a modest economic slowdown with some speed bumps. However, if the deceleration slides towards recession, the fallout could be far more severe than we are currently projecting. We also believe inflation to be under control for now. If this proves incorrect and inflation rises more vigorously, the Fed will find it harder to pull back, nominal rates will rise not fall , and consumers will feel the pinch. There may be a bit more room for risk assets to run higher, but a slowing global economy argues for caution.

Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged index that covers the U. The index includes bonds from the Treasury, government-related, corporate, mortgage-backed securities, asset-backed securities, and collateralized mortgage-backed securities sectors. The three major components of this index are the U. The index also includes Eurodollar and Euro-Yen corporate bonds, Canadian government, agency and corporate securities, and USD investment grade A securities.

It is an unmanaged index of common stocks chosen for market size, liquidity, and industry group representation, among other factors.

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It also measures the performance of the large-cap segment of the US equities market. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss. Investment risk exists with equity, fixed income, and alternative investments. There is no assurance that any investment will meet its performance objectives or that losses will be avoided. You may not invest directly in an index. This material is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice.

The views and opinions expressed are as of November 26, , and may change based on market and other conditions. There can be no assurance that developments will transpire as forecasted, and actual results may vary. This document may contain references to third party copyrights, indexes, and trademarks, each of which is the property of its respective owner. The user of this information assumes the entire risk of use of this information. Each of the third party entities involved in compiling, computing or creating index information disclaims all warranties including, without limitation, any warranties of originality, accuracy, completeness, timeliness, non-infringement, merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose with respect to such information.


Related Articles Market predictions alone are useless — what matters is the rationale behind the argument. While the trajectory of growth, market sentiment, and valuation may be offering conflicting signals, the overall takeaway is one of caution, not panic. Investors should seek ways to construct their allocations in a lower-risk manner, as investments in high-risk assets may not be rewarded. The following funds may be a good fit with this portfolio construction approach. Buildup of reserves composed of cash and US Treasury bills and notes has significantly reduced the duration and interest rate sensitivity of the Fund, providing some protection from anticipated Fed rate hikes.

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According to the Outlook , while inflation is expected to be under control, an unexpected increase would hurt rates and consumers. The ballast securities held by the Fund should face less pressure in , as the Outlook does not call for higher nominal yields in the US out the curve. The portfolio managers have reduced high yield credit exposure from highs and re-allocated some of that capital into bank loans, which offer protection from rising interest rates and are more senior in the capital structure. Gateway Fund GTEYX A low volatility equity fund that has used index options to consistently reduce the risk of equity investing for more than 40 years.

If the deceleration slides toward recession, the fallout could be more severe. In an uncertain market, Gateway Fund is a dependable portfolio tool. It provides exposure to any upside equities may have in , yet has a process in place that reliably reduces downside risk and beta, potentially improving the results of the equity allocation in a moderate to flat or down market.

Additionally, as sellers of volatility, the Fund stands to benefit if volatility levels remain elevated. With the expectation that rates will continue to rise in , bank loans can provide a cushion, as coupon payments are associated with a floating reference rate. According to the most recent data, the financial system and markets appear to be sturdier now than before the great financial crisis. These conditions support late-cycle investing and the bank loan asset class. It seeks to provide attractive risk-adjusted returns throughout market cycles while focusing on drawdown management and low correlations to traditional fixed income.

The two greatest threats to the Outlook are recession and inflation. Insights Chief Investment Strategist David Lafferty expects a challenging market environment to continue in , but reasons for cautious optimism remain. Risks Gateway Fund Equity securities are volatile and can decline significantly in response to broad market and economic conditions. Options may be used for hedging purposes, but also entail risks related to liquidity, market conditions and credit that may increase volatility.

The value of the fund's positions in options may fluctuate in response to changes in the value of the underlying asset. Selling call options may limit returns in a rising market. Foreign and emerging market securities may be subject to greater political, economic, environmental, credit, currency and information risks.

Foreign securities may be subject to higher volatility than US securities due to varying degrees of regulation and limited liquidity. These risks are magnified in emerging markets. Below investment grade fixed income securities may be subject to greater risks including the risk of default than other fixed income securities. Mortgage-related and asset-backed securities are subject to the risks of the mortgages and assets underlying the securities.

Other related risks include prepayment risk, which is the risk that the securities may be prepaid, potentially resulting in the reinvestment of the prepaid amounts into securities with lower yields. Inflation protected securities move with the rate of inflation and carry the risk that in deflationary conditions when inflation is negative the value of the bond may decrease. Loomis Sayles Senior Floating Rate and Fixed Income Fund Floating-rate loans are often lower-quality debt securities and may involve greater risk of price changes and greater risk of default on interest and principal payments.

The market for floating-rate loans is largely unregulated and these assets usually do not trade on an organized exchange. As a result, floating-rate loans can be relatively illiquid and hard to value. Fixed income securities may carry one or more of the following risks: Leverage can increase market exposure and magnify investment risk.

Non-diversified funds invest a greater portion of assets in fewer securities and therefore may be more vulnerable to adverse changes in the market.